This Africa Cup of Nations had already been dubbed the ‘AFCON of Shocks’ long before hosts Ivory Coast were stunned 4-0 by Equatorial Guinea on Monday, but nothing in the tournament before had come close to this.

We’d seen Tunisia defeated by Namibia, Ghana seen off by Cape Verde, and Egypt held by lowly Mozambique, but the hosts’ 4-0 drubbing was a different level, and a case could be made that it’s the biggest shock in the history of the Nations Cup.

Certainly, there were shades of Brazil 1-7 Germany at the 2014 World Cup during an astonishing second half, as the Stade Alassane Ouattara drew silent as the Elephants imploded, conceding three goals during 13 second-half minutes to leave their AFCON hopes hanging by a thread.

Like that Brazil team of 2014, they’re also underwhelming successors to great sides of the past, not quite living up to the lustre of previous generations, yet to fully settle on an identity that makes them more than the sum of their parts.

Didier Drogba, watching on from the executive seats, wearing an Ivorian kit, grimaced as he witnessed his successors stutter. They aren’t out of the tournament just yet, but their chances are slim, and have to wait for Wednesday’s games to see what the results are.

“We have to get back to work, to ask the right questions and make the right decisions,” the Ivorian great told La Nouvelle Chaine Ivorienne after the match.

“A nation like Ivory Coast cannot organise a competition and be eliminated as early as they have today. There’s a real problem here.”

Didier Drogba after Ivory Coast’s 4-0 defeat to Equatorial Guinea at AFCON 😞 pic.twitter.com/aZ5mfwL6tY

— ESPN Africa (@ESPNAfrica) January 22, 2024

A truly historic victory

While this is not a vintage Ivorian side – despite a wealth of talented players – this loss and its scale have sent shockwaves through African football.

Here’s the context:

It’s the Ivorians’ biggest ever home defeat and their worst ever loss at the Nations Cup. Never before have the Elephants lost to a side ranked as lowly as 88th in the FIFA World Rankings at the AFCON, while this is the first time they’ve lost two group stage games at the tournament since 2002.

This result was the joint second-highest losing margin in the history of the Nations Cup, and the worst ever for tournament hosts since the competition’s inception in 1957.

The Elephants have only once lost a match by a greater scoreline – a 5-0 friendly loss against the Netherlands in 2017 — and haven’t conceded five goals in the opening round of the competition since 1998.

For Equatorial Guinea, the victory capped off an unprecedented group-stage campaign. They’ve never before scored more than twice in a single AFCON game before 2024, but have now scored four goals in their last two fixtures.

The spectre of an early elimination looms large for the hosts; this wouldn’t be unprecedented. Should they fall, this would be the fifth time the hosting country has been eliminated in the group stage – the first time since Gabon in 2017 – and the second time for the Ivorians, who endured a similar ignominy on home soil in 1984.

On that instance, like now, they followed up an opening day victory with consecutive defeats, the last time the tournament hosts lost two games in the group stage.

The hosts aren’t out of it just yet…

This current Elephants side now face a nervous wait to see whether they remain alive in the competition, having finished third in Group A behind Equatorial Guinea and Nigeria.

The expanded AFCON format, with 24 only whittled down to 16 after the opening 36 matches, allows the four best ranked third-placed teams to progress to the Last 16.

In previous years, the Ivorians’ record of three points and a minus three goal difference – following victory over Guinea-Bissau and defeat by Nigeria – would not be enough for them to progress.

This time, however, there is a glimmer of hope, boosted by Ghana’s late collapse against Mozambique on Monday. The Black Stars now sit on two points with a -1 goal difference, meaning that the Elephants only need one other team to finish below them in the classement to sneak into the Last 16.

On Tuesday, a draw between The Gambia and Cameroon would see the Ivorians through, as would a 1-0 victory for the Gambians. There could also be a team who finishes below them in Group E, if Namibia lose against Mali and Tunisia fail to beat South Africa.

A Namibian defeat and a Tunisia victory by more than five goals against Bafana would also be enough, while the Ivorians could also pip Zambia if Chipolopolo lose to Morocco and the Congolese dispatch Tanzania.

“We need to wait,” head coach Jean-Louis Gasset told Canal+, “and when you have to wait on the results of others, you know it’s not a good sign.

“We did win one game, so we hope to be among the four best third-placed qualifiers.”

However, these various permutations should give Gasset’s side hope, even if the manner of their eventual progression to the latter stages would be a far cry from what they envisaged when the draw was made.

The rioting supporters and abuse aimed at the players at the final whistle suggest the West Africans would still have much penitence to pay before getting the fans back onside.

Where did it all go wrong?

Despite their desire to be the ambassadors of the 2023 AFCON, promoting ‘Akwaba’ (translating as ‘welcome’) in the process, the Ivorian team had to be shielded from their own fans – hurling insults and plastic bottles – at the conclusion of Monday’s game.

How have things unravelled so spectacularly for a side who were tipped as one of the dark horses heading into the competition?

The absence of striker Sébastien Haller has denied the Elephants their most natural goalscorer, leaving Gasset to lament the chances missed on Monday.

“It’s a nightmare,” he added. “We prepared the match well, we had chances, but we weren’t able to take them. By the contrary, the slightest chance for them resulted in a goal.

“We had planned to go out and score, but we weren’t able to score. The opponents gave us a lesson in realism.”

The Ivorians had their chances – twice efforts were ruled out for offside – but the absence of Haller, still recovering from an ankle injury, has left the Elephants without a focal point.

The decision before the tournament to cut Galatasaray forward and former England international Wilfried Zaha from the group also raised eyebrows, with federation president Yacine Idriss Diallo forced to defend the call while arguing it was for the good of the collective.

Admittedly, the 31-year-old has rarely shown his best form for the national side, but were this Ivorian side really wise to discard a player capable of producing game-changing inspiration?

In midfield, while Seko Fofana has been a bright spark, and opened the tournament scoring only moments into the opener against Guinea-Bissau, the trio of him, Franck Kessié and Ibrahim Sangaré hasn’t clicked.

The three are similar in style, movement and intention, leading to moments of misunderstanding and congestion as they struggled to adapt to each other’s approach. Against Nigeria, the trio imposed themselves, huffing and puffing, but weren’t able to truly carve out an opening, while an on-field disagreement between Kessie and Fofana on Monday appeared to end their on-field collaboration.

Gasset himself appeared uncertain how best to configure his team around his midfield, chopping and changing key areas of his side during the campaign.

The centreback pairing of Evan Ndicka and Ousmane Diomande were thrown into the deep end for the opener – despite only having eight caps between them – with the latter displaced by Willy Boly for the Equatoguinean defeat, while Gasset also appeared to lost faith in Jean-Philippe Krasso after the loss to Nigeria, dropping him for their final group game.

Captain Sèrge Aurier was controversially cut for the opener – a personal disaster for the veteran to miss one of the crowning occasions of his career – but was restored for the Nigeria game only to be axed again for Equatorial Guinea.

Jérémie Boga and Jonathan Bamba were each demoted from the starting XI despite lively displays, while Nicolas Pépé was thrust into a central role for the final game despite being more comfortable in wide areas.

Then, as the Elephants sought an unlikely comeback on Monday, Gasset turned to Brighton rookie Simon Adingra and 100-cap Max-Alain Gradel, neither of whom had been handed even a minute in the two opening matches.

It smacked of incoherent planning from the head coach, who was perhaps finding himself with too many talented options to fit into a cohesive offensive schema.

“I don’t think the problem is our state of mind,” noted Gasset. “When I see the players crying in the changing room, it hurts me.

“We tried everything, I think we gave everything,” he continued, “but in situation like this, there’s not a lot to say or do.”

Permutations being as they are, however, Gasset may yet have an opportunity to prove that he can make the most of this talented assortment of players, and that the Elephants could yet salvage this ‘nightmare’ of a Nations Cup.

In this AFCON of shocks, the hosts surviving might just be the biggest one yet…