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Why Uzbekistan could be the breakout stars at 2026 World Cup

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Why Uzbekistan could be the breakout stars at 2026 World Cup

One of the major selling points of FIFA’s plans to expand its showpiece men’s World Cup from 32 to 48 teams in 2026 has been “opportunity.” Pay no attention to the anticipated explosion in revenue by the curtain, the global governing body says, and observe how more nations will get the chance to experience the spotlight that comes with the planet’s biggest and best sporting event and, in turn, to supercharge the growth of the game within their own countries as a result.

In Asia, which will mark the commencement of the Asian Cup this week in Qatar, allocations for the World Cup almost doubled with the decision, the confederation’s allotment swelling from four-and-a-half slots — four guaranteed places and one playoff place — to eight-and-a-half.

And yet, despite his side ostensibly shaping as one of the biggest beneficiaries of this shift, Uzbekistan coach Srečko Katanec isn’t a fan.

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“If you are good you will qualify,” the Slovenian told Reuters in November. “If you are not good then you look for chances like this, increasing the teams.

“So then increase the World Cup to 150 or involve all the teams from the world. I prefer less teams, more quality and you have to work.”

Winner of a Serie A title with Sampdoria in 1991 and one of only a handful of Slovenians to ever play for Yugoslavia before its dissolution, Katanec isn’t one to mince words. He was at the helm as Slovenia qualified for its first European Championship and World Cup post-independence in 2000 and 2002, as well as for Iraq’s run to the knockout phase of the 2019 Asian Cup; part of a coaching journey that has taken him to dugouts across his homeland, North Macedonia and the Gulf. A disciplined figure who places primacy on the team over the individual, the 60-year-old has had several memorable fallouts with his star players across his coaching career, clashing with the likes of Zlatko Zahovič, Goran Pandev and Josip Iličić.

In August of 2021, he was appointed as coach of Uzbekistan on a four-year deal; taking charge of a nation that is Central Asia’s preeminent side and is one of the fastest rising in all Asian football.

Indeed, if their trajectory holds, and especially if results at youth international level can transfer to the senior ranks, some of Katanec’s doubts surrounding World Cup expansion may be due to the White Wolves having a decent shot of booking a place in North America in 2026 even without the increase in slots.

Since securing its independence from the Soviet Union in 1991, Uzbekistan has never qualified for a World Cup, coming closest in a controversial AFC playoff against Bahrain in 2005. The national team failed to advance to a meeting with Trinidad and Tobago for a spot in Germany after being eliminated on away goals in the AFC playoff, after the first leg was annulled and replayed following a refereeing mistake. In the 2022 qualification cycle, an opening-day loss to Palestine eventually proved fatal for their hopes of advancing to the third stage of AFC qualifying, with that defeat combining with two defeats against Saudi Arabia to see them miss advancing as one of the best-ranked second-placed sides by a single point.

The Uzbeks, however, have qualified for every Asian Cup finals since 1996 and progressed to the knockout phase in each appearance since 2004, including a run to the semifinals in 2011 led by captain Server Djeparov. In November, they began their latest attempt to qualify for a World Cup by dispatching Turkmenistan 3-1 in Ashgabat before rallying from 2-0 down to finish strongly and force a 2-2 draw with Asian powers Iran at Tashkent’s Milliy Stadium.

At club level, Uzbekistan Super League sides Nasaf Quarshi and Navbahor — who will contribute a combined nine players to the 26-player White Wolves squad in Doha — have both qualified for the Asian Champions League knockout phase, the two Uzbek representatives in the knockouts second only to Saudi Arabia’s four in the west region.

Across the coming weeks in Doha, even without the services of Cagliari attacker (on loan from Roma) Eldor Shomurodov, who is out with injury, the White Wolves are favoured to join Australia in advancing out of Group B with a heavy dose of their talented youth among the squad.

Lens’ 19-year-old defender Abdukodir Khusanov, the first Uzbek to play in the French top flight, has been selected for his first senior international tournament after an outstanding Under-20 World Cup, as have 20-year-old CSKA Moscow winger Abbosbek Fayzullaev and Torpedo Moscow (on-loan at Pakhtakor Tashkent) midfielder Khojimat Erkinov. Domestic-based trio Zafarmurod Abdurakhmatov (20), Diyor Kholmatov (21), and Mukhammadkodir Khamraliev (22) are also present.

However, it’s the Central Asians’ next generation of players that has been making the most noise. In November of last year, coach Jamoliddin Rakhmatullaev’s under-17 side, already semifinalists at continental level, stunned England at the Under-17 World Cup in Indonesia when Lokomotiv Tashkent’s Lazizbek Mirzaev scored a 67th-minute winner in Jakarta to eliminate the young Three Lions side at the round of 16.

Earlier that year, after being crowned the kings of Asia on home soil in March after a 1-0 win over Iraq — where Fayzullaev was named player of the tournament — the Uzbeks’ under-20 side reached the knockout phase of the Under-20 World Cup. Its under-23 side, meanwhile, were crowned Asian Champions in 2018, made the semifinals in 2020 and finished as runners-up in the 2022 iteration, again on home soil. It also secured a bronze medal at the 2022 Asian Games in China.

Junior achievement is no guarantee of senior glory, of course, but with Uzbekistan seemingly able to sustain a successful pipeline of talent across multiple levels of Asian competition, the signs are certainly positive.

After defeating the Kyrgyz Republic 4-1 and Palestine 1-0 in pre-Asian Cup friendlies, history suggests that Katanec’s side should progress to the knockouts of the Asian Cup in the coming weeks and, with the quirks of the tournament’s draw meaning that a second-place finish in Group B may produce a more straightforward path than the top position, a deeper run could occur.

From there, who knows? But a return to North America — the Uzbeks lost 3-0 to the United States and drew 3-3 with Mexico in away friendlies in September 2023 — for a first-ever World Cup appearance has never been closer for the White Wolves.